The Science of Poker

Author: M. Mahmood
Publisher: High Stakes
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The Science of Poker

Brunson, Formula Won by Michael J Barry and Percentage Hold'em by Justin Case.

The number of starting hands that can be dealt in Omaha, Texas Hold'em and Seven-Card Stud is enormous. Therefore the task of selecting a winning starting hand can be difficult as well as confusing for the inexperienced player. In each part of the book I have classified starting hands into categories and men performed computer simulations on selected combinations from each one. Each selected starting hand was played at least 10,000 times against 1,2,3,4,5,6 and 7 opponents respectively. The opponents' starting cards were dealt randomly and every contestant played his hand until the end of the deal. At the conclusion of each simulation run, the win-rate (the number of times the hand wins, expressed as a percentage) of die selected hand was recorded. Its potential for making its holder richer was then determined using the concept of the break-even point as described below.

If you are playing against one opponent, men you should win 50% of the pots in order to break even. Similarly, against two, diree, four, up to seven opponents, your break-even win-rates should be 33.3%, 25%, 20%, progressively down to 12.5% respectively. For example, wim three opponents there are four players, including yourself, therefore, your break-even win-rate is 100 divided by 4, which is 25%. If, however, your starting cards' win-rate against diree opponents is, say, 30%, then you are winning five pots over your break-even point. That means you are getting 20% extra pots ((5 h- 25) X 100) over and above your break-even point when you invest your money in diose particular starting cards in four-handed pots. Clearly, starting hands that can offer such good results are superior to those whose performances hover around their break-even points. Those with win-rates below their break-even points are, in the long run, bad news.

Thus, detailed analysis of the results of the computer simulations with the aid of the break-even point and the % extra pots will reveal the effect of the texture of starting cards on their performance against the specified number of opponents. This, to my mind, is valuable because one can extract the following information:

(1) the number of opponents against which that category of cards will play best;

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