Contents

Chapter 1

Forecasting Methods: the Case ofHorseracing

9

The Horseracing Problem

11

Intelligent Systems

12

Data Processing

16

Objectives

18

References

19

Chapter2

Background Information: Horseracing and Betting

20

Racecourses and Races

20

References

45

Chapter 3:

Race Analysis

46

The Predictability of Horseraces

46

Evaluating Horseraces

48

Evaluating the Key Components

50

Suitability of Ground Conditions

62

Suitability of Race Distances

63

The Effect of the Draw

65

Summary

81

References

83

Chapter 4

Probabilities and Profit

84

Forecasting Objectives

84

Is Finding the Winner Enough?

86

Probability Estimates

87

References

92

Chapter 5

The Rule-Based Approach

93

Rule-Based Systems

93

Developing Rule-Based Systems for Horseracing

95

Selected Rule-Based Methods

97

References

112